نشریه امنیت ملی
پیاپی 32 (تابستان 1398)

The quantity and quality of the population have long been considered as one of the main factors affecting the various dimensions of national authority and security. Demographers say demographic variables, especially population growth rates and fertility rates, are currently inappropriate and have presented warnings. On the other hand, studying the dimensions and constituents of authority and national security indicate that there are demographic indicators in it. The high impact of demographic indicators on national authority and national security and the inappropriate process of these indicators led to this study to be taken into account and how these indicators were reviewed, so that the results could provide areas for effective decision making and avoidance of surprise.The research was carried out in three areas of population, authority and national security, applied in a randomized and mixed manner. The qualitative analysis of literature led to the indexation of 35 demographic indicators. Subsequently, with the design and implementation of the questionnaire, 49 experts from 12 community and security research centers were interviewed. Due to the lack of statistical population and their dispersion in different centers, samples were randomly selected, targeted and quoted.The results of the questionnaire were quantitative and qualitative (statistical analysis and intellectual storm) in the SWAT process, which led to the quadratic points and, finally, six population strategies, along with its implementation mechanisms, that some strategies to restore the population and some to consolidate the authority and National Security pays.

Regarding 1404 horizon document NAJA organization is planned to be a secure sufficient and ultimately a role model for its counter-parts in the region countries. According to the latest IPSA report ( a non-governmental organization  which specializes in military and police studies ) ,  NAJA  placed 80 among 127 countries therefore assuming the rank it appears that we are yet far from the ultimate desired rank. Identifying the crucial success factors and analyzing the difference between the current and the desired state of these factors is the purpose of this research. The type of  the research is a hybrid of  practical, progressive with traits of research methodology therefore two types of sample groups ( quantitative and qualitative ) were used. Utilizing library-oriented research, critical thinking sessions and interviewing the nobles, data were gathered and consequently the conceptual pattern of both within and without organization success factors (consisting of 16 dimensions, 61 factors and 231 standards) were designed. Then by conducting a questionnaire for a practical statistical sample for 50 analyzing   and testing of the conceptual pattern began. Eventually 13 out of 61 proposed factors were recognized as the selected crucial success factors. Development of systems, interactivity guidelines , updating to the latest technology , personnel satisfaction , security  of the systems , purposeful expense management , alignment oriented guidelines , systematic monitoring and evaluation , utilization, co-operational style of management  and having an organic structure as the within-organization factors ,cooperation with security principals and  public participation attraction as the without-organization factors were  recognized. Analysis of the gap between these factors and their optimal state were determined though the amount of points that were given to the afro-mention standards .results showed that among the factors the Development of systems had the most and security of the systems had the least gap to the optimal state. Consequently these 13 factors were placed under the following categorizations: very wide, wide, medium and narrow gap, using these the practical and executive offers were then proposed.

Socialization and civilization is one of the greatest goals of Islam, and individual and collective growth and decline are linked to the conditions of society. The statements of the Supreme Leader are rooted in the teachings of the pure Mohammedan Islam, which has been one of the basic needs of the human society for the officials and practitioners of the guidance system to operate the country in a variety of areas, including safe society. Harmonious. The main purpose of this article is to present a model of the safe society of the Islamic Republic of Iran from the point of view of the Supreme Leader. This research is a kind of applied development that has been done using mixed method (qualitative and quantitative). That is, content analysis method was used to identify concepts and foundations in the literature of opinion in expressions and using the data base method and coding steps (open coding, axial and selective) to achieve the components of community dimensions and characteristics. Safe to use. The statistical population of the relevant authorities and managers of the relevant organizations that have strategic jobs in the field and university with a doctorate degree or equivalent, constitutes the research experts. The results of the research show that the themes of "the foundation of the emergence and establishment of the Mahdavi community, the movement of dignity, wisdom and expediency, the potential for active deterrence, civilization and modernity, the lasting and lasting solidarity with the word unity, the maximum focus on presence, participation" Public support is one of the most important themes for the model in question. By doing the scientific methodological steps at the end, the model of safe society was presented with all the components mentioned and formulated the relationship between them.

Era of communication and new technologies, such as Internet, is a catalyst for the transformation and acceleration of globalization. This space has created a huge capacity for management and improvement of our country but on the other hand, considering that the main infrastructure of this space is in the hands of the domination system, it can be considered a threat to society. The negation of domination in the current management of cyberspace, Requires the use of the guidelines of the Supreme Leader for the management and promotion of national security of the country. Given the rich, comprehensive and complete guidelines of the Supreme Leader on cyberspace The implementation of the measures will require the study, research, compilation, analysis and presentation of the strategic model.In this paper, Grounded Theory and library and Field research gathering tools were used and data were analyzed using Quantitative and qualitative analysis with a statistical population of 60 people and snowball method in saturation used and validity and reliability with Cronbach's alpha test with The number of .911 has been confirmed and finally, the dimensions, components and indicators, extracted and analyzed, the strategic model of virtual space management, based on Imam Khamenei’ ideas and the effect Imam Khamenei’ ideas on the strategic management dimensions Cyberspace (Dimension Coordination with the highest factor load of 99.7 and Dimension targets with a minimum of 96.3) and Appropriate suggestions are also given at the end.

The Development of communication infrastructures and connection of Heterogeneous networks with concurrent expansion of diverse services at national and local organizations beside of it's Unusual and intertwined structure are main reason for growing of vulnerabilities and threats in cyberspace. Cyber threats with effectiveness at national level against some of these infrastructures -as known critical infrastructures- impose huge and Irrecoverable costs on the organizations, societies and countries. The main action in dealing with these cases is to identify the above threats. The purpose of this study is to analyze these threats in the form of a rational conceptual model for their classification. Achieving this goal requires identifying cyber threat classifications, examining their rationale and typology at critical infrastructure level. In this study, by conducting relevant researches, reviewing the literatures, identifying frequent cyber threats, validating them from credible sources, and extracting common concepts related to cyber threat identification, dimensions, components and indicators of cyber threat classification of critical infrastructures were extracted. The data were collected by Meta-synthesis and the results were validated by Kappa coefficient. The results came in the form of a rational conceptual model of cyber threat classification of critical infrastructures whose six dimensions are: threats, threat factors, threat characteristics, intrusive view, system description, and threat identification resources.

Nowadays, the Islamic Republic of Iran's police force (NAJA), believing in the pivotal role of Islam, people and social institutions in the development of public order and security, through utilizing religious and Islamic opportunities and establishing mechanisms of public participation and intervention in plans and programs for deploying order and security seeks to enhance the level of social commitment and trust, responsibility-orientation and implementing teamwork and social acceptance, and aims at establishing emotional relationships between NAJA and the public. Accordingly, identifying indictors and constituents impacting social prevention on one hand, and factors and elements contributing to supplying social security on the other, are considered the substantial prerequisites of planning for improving level of societal security. Therefore, the main objective of composing this article is to present an Islamic-Iranian model of social prevention of crime by stressing the role of NAJA in societal security.

The present research, in terms of research design, is a prospective one, and of applied type. The statistical population (N=50) includes experts and elites in the field of Islamic - Iranian social model of prevention of crime. Target-oriented sampling method has been utilized for selecting the participants in the research. A self-made questionnaire was used for field data collection. In this study, Content Validity Ratio (CVR) was used to determine the validity of the questionnaire. The reliability of the questionnaire was assessed by conducting initial study and applying corrections using SPSS. Cronbach's alpha coefficient for the questionnaire used in this study is 0.91.

Finally, taking into account sociological and psychological considerations, an Islamic-Iranian model was developed which consists of two dimensions, four constituents and sixteen indicators as follows: The first dimension or individual dimension of the model (interior) consists of two constituents:1- The constituent of reforming religious beliefs which includes  various indicators :humility, responsibility-orientation, trust in God, piety, faith, and so on.2- Constituent of individual and social competences which includes various indicators: life skills, social base, fostering good deeds and forbidding bad deeds.The second dimension or extra-personal dimension of the model (exterior) includes two constituents:1- Constituent of structural components including various indicators: social justice, social awareness, social trust and social control.2- Constituent of reinforcing social agents including various indicators: family, neighborhood, media and cyberspace. The data of this study indicate that the higher the level of knowledge and awareness of citizens on crime prevention indicators and components, the more likely they are to cooperate with police forces (NAJA) to establish and maintain order and security. Findings in the neighborhood-oriented indicator show that citizens' collaboration with the police requires educating citizens in line with developing vision, knowledge and skills. Findings in the media indicator show that the more social surveillance is applied in the cyberspace by intelligence custodians, the more people have security feeling in the cyberspace. In the media indicator, the more the public believes in the positive role of the media in reflecting the situation of the community in terms of security, the higher the security feeling.

Social construction of societies, in their process of movement, capable of intrinsic or complex evolution and evolution And it has an impact on human living space. These changes are exposed to the hidden and hidden processes that drive the massive flow of socially influential processes. Understanding these trends and factors underlies the evolutionary and evolutionary directions of society And finally, it will be possible to predict the future optimization or functional or structural disadvantages of society. Obtain this knowledge, through the ontology of affective factors (by looking at retrospective and retrospective factors and trends), Through future research patterns. Social Construction Trend of Islamic Republic of Iran Using Library Research Method Ever since the end of the sacred defense It shows the influence of 23 factors on the structural or functional structures of the social structure of the system By examining the future research of these trends and factors over the next 15 years Social construction of the system using survey method Three Critical Uncertainties; "Increasing Poverty and Class Conflict", "Value and Normal Divergence" and "Increasing Social Damage" Identified. According to the identified critical uncertainties, four possible scenarios and possible social structure of the formulation system Then strategies for achieving the optimal scenario (modifying and reducing social challenges) are summarized using the wind tunnel method.